庄建仓

姓名: 庄建仓
性别: 男

现任职称(职务):副教授(Institute of Statistical Mathematics & Department of Statistical Sciences, the Graduate University for Advanced Studies)

研究方向及领域:
1. Point processes and stochastic geometry
2. Statistical modeling and analysis, especially for seismicity patterns and prediction
3. Computing assessment of scientific calculation
科研成果:
78. Ke, J., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., Jiang, C., Guo, Y., Gao, Z., Gao, S. (2018) Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake trigger the occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan, China? accepted by Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth.
77. Wang, Y., Wang, T., Zhuang, J. (2018) Modelling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes Accepted by Environmetrics.
76. Opris, A., Enescu, B, Yagi, Y., and Zhuang, J. (2018) Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismcity in Southwest Japan. Geophysical Journal International, 212: 1010-1021. doi:10.1093/gji/ggx456.
75. Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Wu, Z. and Bi, J. (2017) Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 60:4132-4144. doi:10.6038/cjg20171038.(in Chinese with English abstract)
74. Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017) Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-mainshock- aftershock sequence. Geophysical Journal International. doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407.
73. Yang, H., Liu, Y., Wei, M., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2017) Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 60:1632-1644, doi:10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0.
72. Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017) Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66:691-715, doi:10.1111/rssc.12194.
71. Guo, Y., Zhuang J., Hirata N., Zhou S. (2017) Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, 122: 5288-5305, doi:10.1002/2017JB014064.
70.Wang, D., H. Kawakatsu, J. Zhuang, J. Mori, T. Maeda, H. Tsuruoka, and X. Zhao (2017), Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquake s using backprojection and P wave amplitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44:5447-5456, doi:10.1002/2017GL073801.
69. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata, and T. Wang (2017) Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters. Earth, Planets and Space, 69:36. doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6 [open access]
68. Han, P. , K. Hattori, J. Zhuang, C.-H. Chen, J. -Y. Liu, and and S. Yoshida (2016) Evaluation of ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using Molchan's error diagram. Geophysical Journal International, 208: 482-490. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggw404
67. Zhuang, J., D. Wang, and M. Matsu'ura (2016) Features of the earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones' branching crack model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. Volume 106. doi:10.1785/0120150337.
66. Luo, J. and J. Zhuang (2016) Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 106(3), 1364-1369. doi:10.1785/0120150324.
65. Huang, Y. L, S.Y. Zhou, and J.C. Zhuang (2016) Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness (in Chinese with English abstract). Chinese Journal of Geophysics. 59:1350-1358. doi:10.6038/cjg20160416.
64. Chu, A., and J. Zhuang (2016) Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. In Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment, edited by Y.-G. Li. Pages 219-237.
63. Chen, S., C. Jiang, and J. Zhuang (2016) Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173: 305-319. doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1114-x.
62. Huang, Q., M. Gestenberger, and J. Zhuang (2016) Current challenges in statistical seismology. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173: 1-3. doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1222-7.
61. Zhuang, J. (2015) Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes. Spatial Statistics. 14: 166-178. doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.07.009.
60. Zhuang, J. and Y. Ogata (2015) Evaluation methods of earthquake forecasts (in Japanese). Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 63: 29-44.
59. Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., and Zhou, S. (2015) A hypocentral version of the space-time ETAS model. Geophysical Journal International, 203: 366-372. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv319.
58. Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., and Zhou, S. (2015) An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering. Journal of Geophysical Research,120:3309-3323. doi:10.1002/2015JB011979.
57. Zhuang, J., and Touati, S. (2015) Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogs, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-43806322, available at http://www.corssa.org.
56. Murru, M., J. Zhuang, R. Console, and G. Falcone. (2014) Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L'Aquila (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009. Annals of Geophysics, 57(6): S0649. doi:10.4401/ag-6583.
55. Zechar, J. D., and Zhuang, J. (2014) A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 199, 60-68. doi:10.1093/gji/ggu137.
54. Han, P., K. Hattori, M. Hirokawa, J. Zhuang, C.-H. Chen, F. Febriani, H. Yamaguchi, C. Yoshino, J.-Y. Liu, and S. Yoshida (2014) Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001-2010, Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Space Physics, 119, 4998-5011. doi:10.1002/2014JA019789.
53. Zhuang J., Ogata Y., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., and Guan H. (2014) Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region. In Seismic Imaging, Fault Rock Damage and Healing, edited by Li Y., Germany: De Gruyter together with China: Higher Education Press. Pages: 351-376.
52. Zoeller, G., M. Holschneider, S. Hainzl, and J. Zhuang. (2014) The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(2): 769-779. doi:10.1785/0120130103.
51. Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., and Jiang, C. (2014) Possibility of the independence between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on Longmen Shan fault, Sichuan, China. Seismological Research Letters, 85: 60-67. doi:10.1785/0220130115.
50. Zhuang J., Werner, M. W. and Harte D. S. (2013) Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios. Physical Review E., 88(6): 062109, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109.
49. Jiang, C., J. Zhuang, F Long, and L. Han (2013) Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 35(5):661-669. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005 (In Chines with English abstract).
48. Jiang, C.S., Z.L. Wu and J.C. Zhuang. (2013) ETAS model applied to the Earthquake-Sequence Association (ESA) problem: the Tangshan sequence.Chinese Journal Geophysics, 56(9): 2971-2981, doi: 10.6038/cjg20130911.
47. Talbi, A., K. Nanjo, J. Zhuang, K. Satake. and M. Hamdache. (2013) Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model. Geophysical Journal international. 194 (3): 1823-1835, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt194.
46. Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K., and Zhuang, J. (2013) Comprehensive and Topical Evaluations of Earthquake Forecasts in Terms of Number, Time, Space, and Magnitude. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103:1692-1708. doi:10.1785/0120120063.
45. Wang, T., Zhuang, J, Kato, T., and Bebbington, M. (2013) Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50554.
44. Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Satake, K., Zhuang, J. and Hamdache, M. (2013) Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering. Journal of Seismology. 17(3): 1041-1061. doi:10.1007/s10950-013-9371-6.
43. Jacobs K. M., Smith E. G. C., Savage M. K., and Zhuang J. (2013) Cumulative rate analysis: a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 553-569. doi:10.1029/2012JB009222.
42. Nanjo, K. Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T. H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012), Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results. Geophysical Journal International.191(2), 653--658. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x. [Online version]
41. Zhuang, J., Harte, D, Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S. (2012) Basic models of seismicity: temporal models Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-79905851. Available at http://www.corssa.org.
40. Zhuang, J. (2012) Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering. Research in Geophysics, 22, e6. doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e8. [Online verseion]
39. Console, R., Yamaoka, K., and Zhuang, J (2012) Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts. International Journal of Geophysics, 2012, 217923. doi:10.1155/2012/217923. Editorial of special issue: Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Console, R., Yamaoka, K., and Zhuang, J (editors) [Online version]
38. Zhuang, J.-C. and Jiang, C.-S. (2012) Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score, Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), 55: 1695-1709. doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.05.026. [ Online version ]
37. Peng, Y., Zhou S., Zhuang J. and Shi J. (2012) An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, 189: 1734-1740. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05456.x.
36. van Stiphout T., Zhuang J., and Marsan D. (2012) Seismicity declustering, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-52382934. Available at http://www.corssa.org. [Online version] [Software].
35. Parsons T., Ogata Y., Zhuang J. and Geist E. L. (2012) Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests. Geophysical Journal International, 188: 1425-1440. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x
34. Zhuang J. and Jiang C, (2012) Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China. Tectonophysics, 524-525: 155-164. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033.
32. Zechar J. D., Hardebeck J. L., Michael A. J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J., and the CORSSA working group, (2011). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters, 82: 686-690, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.82.5.686. [ FREE PUBLIC VERSION ] .
32. Zhang L.-P. and Zhuang J. (2011) An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks. Tectonophysics, 509, 191-197, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.06.008.
31. Zhuang J., Werner M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou S. (2011) Basic models of seismicity: spatiotemporal models, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-07487583. Available at http://www.corssa.org. [Online version]
30. Marzocchi W. and Zhuang J., (2011) Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 38: L09310. doi:10.1029/2011GL047165.
29. Zhuang J., (2011) , Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model. Earth Planets Space, 63: 207-216. doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010.
28. Wang, Q., Jackson D. D., and Zhuang J. (2010). Missing links in earthquake clustering models. Gephysical Research Letters, 37, L21307, doi:10.1029/2010GL044858
27. Zechar J. D. and Zhuang J., (2010) , Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions Geophysical Journal International, 182, 1319--1326, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04666.x.
26. Wang, Q., Jackson D. D., and Zhuang J. (2010). Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, B08310, doi:10.1029/2009JB007031.
25. Jiang C.-S. and Zhuang J.-C. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), 53(2): 305-317, doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.02.001.
24. Zhuang J. (2010) Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts . Geophysical Journal International 181: 382-390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x.
23 Zhang L.-P., Yin X.-C., Zhuang J., Zhang X.-T., Yuan S. and Liang N. (2009) Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence, Earthquake, 29(1), 60-67 (in Chinese with English abstract).
22. Zhuang J. (2009) Statistical models for earthquake clustering and declustering. Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (In Japanese with English abstract). Vol. 57, 178-193.
21. Zhuang J., Christophosen A., Savage M. K., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D. D. (2008) Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research. 113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.
20. Vere-Jones D. and Zhuang J. (2008) On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Physical Review E., 78, 047102. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.78.047102
19. Yin X.-C., Zhang L.-P., Zhang H.-H., Yin C., Wang Y., Zhang Y., Peng K., Wang H., Song Z., Yu H. and Zhuang J. (2006) LURR's Twenty Years and its Perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2317-2341. doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0135-x.
18. Zhuang J. (2006) Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68 (4), 635-653. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00559.x.
17. Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2006) Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks. Physical Review, E. 73, 046134. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134 .
16. Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2006). Space--time ETAS models and an improved extension. Tectonophysics. 413(1-2), 13-23.
15. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. Chap. 15 (Pages 275-290) of Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models, Edited by Baddeley A., Gregori P., Mateu J., Stoica R. and Stoyan D. Springer-Verlag, New York. 320 pages.
14. Zhuang J. (2005) Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley A., Turner R., M{\o}ller J. and Hazelton M., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B , 67(5) 656-657, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.
13. Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Guan H., Ogata Y. and Ma L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162: 1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3. [data]
12. Zhuang J., Chang C.-P., Ogata Y. and Chen Y.-I. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using a point process model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.
11. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, No. B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.
10. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97: 369-380.
9. Ma L. and Zhuang J. (2001). Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in China: an application of the ETAS point process model. Journal of Applied Probability, Special Volume for "Probability, Statistics and Seismology". Edited by D. Delay. 38(A): 213-221.
8. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (2000). Main Shock and After Shock -- From the Omori law to the epidemic aftershock model. Recent Development in World Seismology (In Chinese with English abstract), 2000 No. 5: 12-18.
7. Zhuang J. (2000). Statistical modeling of seismicity patterns before and after the 1990 Oct 5 Cape Palliser earthquake, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. 43: 447-460.
6. Liu J., Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Shi Y. and Ma L. (2000). The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 13: 38-49.
5. Zhuang J. and Yin X. (2000). Random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio under the assumptions of Poisson models. Earthquake Research in China . 14(2).
4. Wang H., Peng K., Zhuang J., Zhang X. and Yin X. (1999). Analysis on the Effect of Sample conditions on the Results of Load/Unload Response Ratio. Earthquake (In Chinese with English abstract). 19(3):223-229.
3. Liu J., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., Shi Y. and Zhuang J. (1998). The principle of coupled stress release model and its application. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 11: 273-281.
2. Shi Y., Liu J., Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). Applications of mechanical and statistical models to study of seismicity and prediction of synthetic earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 421-430.
1. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). The stress release model and results from modeling features of some seismic regions in China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 59-70.