Vladimir G. KOSSOBOKOV

Born: January 05, 1953 – Moscow, Russian Federation, USSR

 

Education:

1970-1975: M. S. in Mathematics, Department of Mechanics and Mathematics, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University.

1984: Ph. D. in Physical and Mathematical Sciences (Geophysics), O. Yu. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow

2004: Doctor of Sciences in Physical and Mathematical Sciences (Geophysics), International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

2016: Expert of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

 

Membership in Professional Societies:

American Geophysical Union – since 1991; European Geosciences Union; European Advisory Evaluation Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Council of Europe – since 1999; past vice president of the IUGG GeoRisk Commission (Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability) – since 2007; core member of International Seismic Safety Organization – since 2011.

 

Professional Career:

1975-1989: Researcher, O. Yu. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow

1990-2004: Leading Researcher, International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

2005-present: Chief Scientist, Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

1992-present: Professeur Invité, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris

 

Areas of expertise: exploratory data analysis, pattern recognition, applied mathematical statistics, global and regional geophysical data bases, earthquake prone areas, reproducible methods for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, hazard and risks assessment.

 

ORCID ID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3505-7803

 

Selected Publications (50 out of 192):

 

Kossobokov, V.G., Nekrasova, A. (2018) Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea. Journal of Seismology (Published online: 24 May 2018); doi: 10.1007/s10950-018-9759-4

Kossobokov, V.G., Nekrasova, A. (2017) Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy.  Pure Appl. Geophys.. 174: 3713–3723; doi: 10.1007/s00024-017-1624-9

Kossobokov, V.G. (2017) Testing an Earthquake Prediction Algorithm: The 2016 New Zealand and Chile Earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174 (5): 1845–1854; doi: 10.1007/s00024-017-1543-9

Parvez, I.A., Nekrasova, A., Kossobokov, V. (2017) Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: State of Gujarat, India. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174 (3): 1441–1452; doi:10.1007/s00024-017-1475-4

Kossobokov VG, Le Mouël J-L, Courtillot V (2016) Chapter 4. Solar Flares on Transition from the Grand Maximum to the Minimum? In: Jones, S.L. (Ed) Solar Flares: Investigations and Selected Research, NOVA Science Publ. Physics Research and Technology Series; Hauppauge, New York; 81-100; ISBN: 978-1-53610-204-8

Le Mouël J.-L., Kossobokov V. G., Perrier F., Morat, P. (2016) Intermittent heat instabilities in an air plume. Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 23: 319–330; doi:10.5194/npg-23-319-2016

Mojarab, M., Kossobokov, V., Memarian, H., Zare, M. (2015) An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern Anatolia at the approach of the 2011 Van earthquake. J Earth Syst Sci 124: 1047-1062. doi:10.1007/s12040-015-0584-7

Kossobokov V, Peresan A, Panza GF (2015) Reality Check: Seismic Hazard Models You Can Trust. EOS 96(13): 9-11.

Kossobokov V, Peresan A, Panza GF (2015) On operational earthquake forecast and prediction problems. Seismological Research Letters 86(2):287-290

Panza GF, Kossobokov V, Peresan A, Nekrasova A (2014) Chapter 12. Why are the standard probabilistic methods of estimating seismic hazard and risks too often wrong? In: Wyss M, Shroder J (eds)  Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters. Elsevier, London, 309-357.

Kossobokov V (2014) Chapter 18. Times of Increased probabilities for occurrence of catastrophic earthquakes: 25 years of hypothesis testing in real time. In: Wyss M, Shroder J (eds)  Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters. Elsevier, London, 477-504.

Courtillot V, Le Mouël J-L, Kossobokov V, Gibert D, Lopes F (2013) Multi-decadal trends of global surface temperature: a broken line with alternating ~30 yr linear segments? Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 3: 364-371

Kossobokov VG (2013) Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment. Natural Hazards 69(2):1155–1177

Kossobokov V, Le Mouël J-L, Allègre C (2012) Spatial and Temporal Variations of Climate in Europe. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2 (4): 568-581

Davis C, Keilis-Borok V, Kossobokov V, Soloviev A (2012) Advance Prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A Missed Opportunity for Disaster Preparedness. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 1 (1): 17-32

Wyss M, Nekrasova A, Kossobokov V (2012) Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates. Natural Hazards, 62 (3): 927-935

Kossobokov VG, Nekrasova AK (2012) Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program Maps are Erroneous. Seismic Instruments 48 (2): 162-170

Kossobokov V, Le Mouël J-L, Courtillot V (2012) On Solar Flares and Cycle 23. Solar Physics 276 (1-2), 383-394.

Kossobokov V (2011) Are Mega Earthquakes Predictable? Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 46 (8), 951–961.

Nekrasova A, Kossobokov V, Peresan A, Aoudia A, Panza GF (2010) A Multiscale Application of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean Area and Alpine Region. Pure Appl. Geophys. 168 (3-4)

Kossobokov V, Le Mouël J-L, Courtillot V (2010) A statistically significant signature of multi-decadal solar activity changes in atmospheric temperatures at three European stations. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 72, 595–606

Le Mouël J-L, Kossobokov V, Courtillot V (2010) A solar pattern in the longest temperature series from three stations in Europe. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 72, 62–76

Kossobokov VG, Lepreti F, Carbone V (2008) Complexity in sequences of solar flares and earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 761–775

Kossobokov VG, Soloviev AA (2008) Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 10, ES2005; DOI 10.2205/2007ES000251.

Romashkova LL, Kossobokov VG (2007) Global Seismic Symptoms of Lithosphere Instability at the Approach of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Mega-earthquake. Doklady Earth Sciences, 417, No. 8, 2007, 1221-1223.

Kossobokov, V.G. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales. In: Recent Geodynamics, Georisk and Sustainable Development in the Black Sea to Caspian Sea Region, A. Ismail-Zadeh (Ed.), American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings, 825, Melville, New York, pp. 32-50, 2006.

Kossobokov, V.G., 2006. Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV = 5.8». Tectonophysics 413 25–31

Le Mouël, J.-L., V. Kossobokov, V. Courtillot, 2005. On long-term variations of simple geomagnetic indices and slow changes in magnetospheric currents: The emergence of anthropogenic global warming after 1990? Earth and Planetary Science Letters 232, 273– 286.

Perrier, F., J.-L. Le Mouël, V. Kossobokov, C. Crouzeix, P. Morat, and P. Richon, 2005. Properties of turbulent air avalanches in a vertical pit. Eur. Phys. J. B 46, 563–579

Peresan, A., V. Kossobokov, L. Romashkova, and G.F. Panza, 2005. Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions in Italy: a review. Earth-Science Reviews 69 (1-2), 97-132.

Kossobokov, V.G., 2005. Earthquake prediction: Principles, implementation, perspectives. (Earthquake prediction and geodynamic processes. Computational Seismology 36, part I), Moscow, GEOS, 175 pages (in Russian).

Kosobokov, V. G., Nekrasova, A. K., 2005. Temporal variations in the parameters of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes in the eastern part of Honshu Island (Japan). Doklady Earth Sciences, 405, 1352-1356.

Kossobokov, V.G. and A.K. Nekrasova., 2004. Unified scaling law for earthquakes: Global map of parameters. In: The analysis of geodynamic and seismic processes (Computational Seismology 35). Moscow, GEOS, 160-175 (in Russian).

Kossobokov, V. and P. Shebalin, 2003. 4. Earthquake Prediction. In: Keilis-Borok, V.I., and A.A. Soloviev, (Editors) Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer, Heidelberg, 141-207.

Gorshkov, A., V. Kossobokov, and A. Soloviev, 2003. 6. Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas. In: Keilis-Borok, V.I., and A.A. Soloviev, (Editors) Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer, Heidelberg, 239-310.

Bellanger, E., V. Kossobokov, and Le Mouël, J.-L., 2003. Predictability of geomagnetic series. Annales Geophisicae, 21: 1101-1109.

Kossobokov, V.G., L.L. Romashkova, G.F. Panza, and A. Peresan. Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions. J. Seismology Earthquake Engineering, 2002, 4, 2&3: 11-19

Zlotnicki, J, V. Kossobokov, and J.-L. Le Mouël, 2001. The ultra low frequency content of the electromagnetic field at the approach and after the 21 July 1995, M=5.7, Yong Deng (China) earthquake. Tectonophysics, 334, 3-4: 259-270

Kossobokov, V.G., V.I. Keilis-Borok, D.L.Turcotte, and B.D. Malamud, 2000. Implications of a statistical physics approach for earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting. Pure Appl. Geophys., 157: 2323-2349

Kossobokov, V.G., V.I. Keilis-Borok, and B. Cheng, 2000. Similarities of multiple fracturing on a neutron star and on the Earth. Phys. Rev. E, 61: 3529-3533

Kossobokov,V.G., V.I. Keilis-Borok, L.L. Romashkova, and J.H.Healy, 1999. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant real-time prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 111, 3-4: 187-196.

Kossobokov, V.G., 1995. On a regularity in the sequence of reversals of the Earth’s magnetic field. Doklady Russian Acad. Nauk 340, 4:539-542.

Kosobokov,V.G., and S.A.Mazhkenov, 1994. On similarity in the spatial distribution of seismicity. In D.K.Chowdhury (ed.), Computational Seismology and Geodynamics / Am. Geophys. Un., 1, Washington, D.C.: The Union, 6-15.

Healy, J. H., V.G. Kossobokov, and J. W. Dewey, 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8, U. S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401.

Keilis-Borok, V.I., and V.G. Kossobokov, 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: algorithm M8. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61, 73-83.

Kossobokov, V.G., V.I. Keilis-Borok, and S.W.Smith , 1990, Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, No. B12, 19763-19772.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and V. G. Kossobokov, 1987. Periods of high probability of occurrence of the world's strongest earthquakes, Computational Seismology 19, Allerton Press Inc., 45?53.

Gourvitch, V.A., and V.G. Kossobokov, 1984. On volcanism and elevation’s amplitude connections with the strongest earthquakes’ epicenters. In: Mathematical modelling and interpretation of geophysical data (Computational Seismology 16). Moscow, Nauka Publ., 88-93 (in Russian).

Gvishiani, A.D., and V.G. Kossobokov, 1981. On substantiation of the earthquake-prone area prediction results obtained by pattern recognition methods. Izvestia Ac. Sci. USSR. Fizika Zemli, 2: 21-36 (in Russian).

Gvishiani, A.D., A.V. Zelevinsky, V.I. Keilis-Borok, and V.G. Kossobokov, 1978. The analysis of the origin sites of largest earthquakes in the Pacific belt by pattern recognition algorithms. Izvestia Ac. Sci. USSR. Fizika Zemli, 9: 31-42 (in Russian).

 

Current Professional Affiliations and Addresses: Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Acad. Sc., 84/32 Profsoyuznaya Street, 117997 Moscow,  Russian Federation; Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 1, rue Jussieu - Bureau 233, 75238 Paris, Cedex 05, FRANCE

 

E-mail: volodya@mitp.ru